Independent weather forecaster Accuweather.com made the yield prediction based on expected drought conditions continuing in key corn growing areas such as southern Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, South Dakota, Nebraska and southern Minnesota.
Corn may rally to a record $8.50 a bushel as the worst U.S. drought in decades cuts production in the world’s biggest exporter, driving global stockpiles lower, according to broker Newedge USA LLC.
Dimming corn- crop prospects in the U.S. may push global food costs higher, the Food & Agriculture Organization said earlier this month.
The US Department of Agriculture began the season with a record forecast corn yield of 166 bu/ac but slashed that back to 146 bu/ac last week as drought set in throughout the nation's corn belt.
With an estimated 96 million acres sown to corn, each 1 bu/ac fall in yield equates to a 2.4 million tonne drop in production.
Soybeans Climb
Soybean fields are showing similar declines. In the most recent week, 30 percent of the crop was listed as good and 4 percent as excellent, down from 35 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in the previous week.
Since reaching the year’s low in June, the grain has rallied 51 percent. November-delivery soybeans, which lost 0.6 percent to $15.81 a bushel, reached $16.07 yesterday, the highest price since 2008.
Corn yields will probably drop to 134.9 bushels an acre as crop conditions deteriorate, Cekander said in an interview yesterday, forecasting prices of $8.25 to $8.50 for December futures. That compares with the USDA estimate of 146 bushels, and a forecast of 138 bushels from AccuWeather.com. Last year’s harvest was 12.36 billion bushels, with a yield of 147.2 bushels.
“The fear is that the U.S. corn yield will decline to 125 to 130 bushels per acre if hot and dry weather persists through mid-August,” Cekander said.
Global corn production in 2012-2013 may total 905.2 million tons compared with demand of 900.5 million tons, according to the USDA, which forecasts world ending stockpiles of 134 million tons.
Farmers even reported improved conditions for peanuts with 58 percent of the crop listed as good and 10 percent as excellent compared to 57 percent and 9 percent in the previous week
Accuweather Prediction for U.S. Corn Production
